Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has issued a stark assessment regarding the escalating crisis on the northern border, estimating that Hezbollah will reject the ongoing U.S. diplomatic push to disarm voluntarily. According to a report by N12 News, Katz believes that diplomatic avenues have been effectively exhausted and that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will inevitably be forced to undertake the mission of disarmament militarily.
“Hezbollah will not agree to disarm,” Katz reportedly told security officials, dismissing hopes that the Lebanese government or international mediators could force the terror group to hand over its heavy weapons. “If they don’t do it, Israel will have to do it.”
This grim forecast coincides with a marked shift in IDF posture. Senior military officials speaking to Channel 12 (N12) warned that another large-scale ground operation in Lebanon is “getting closer” by the day. These sources indicated that the recent intensification of airstrikes—including the high-profile assassination of Hezbollah’s Chief of Staff, Abu Ali Tabtabai, in Beirut—serves as a “preview” of the widespread destruction Lebanon will face if the status quo persists.
The U.S. administration has been exerting immense pressure on Beirut, with envoys explicitly warning that Lebanon risks becoming a “failed state” if it cannot enforce its own sovereignty. However, the Israeli defense establishment views these efforts as futile against a group that has spent decades entrenching itself within the Lebanese state. Intelligence assessments suggest that fully disarming Hezbollah—stripping it of its vast missile arsenal and dismantling its tunnel networks—cannot be achieved through limited strikes or “short, preemptive operations” alone. Instead, officials acknowledge that achieving total disarmament would require a major war involving deep ground maneuvers, a scenario the region has been teetering on the edge of for months.
“The clock is ticking,” a senior defense source stated. “We are providing a final window for diplomacy, but our tanks are already engaging in battle procedure.”
The skepticism from Katz aligns with reports that Hezbollah has used the nominal ceasefire period not to demobilize, but to rearm and reorganize its command structure. With the group digging in and the Lebanese Army unable or unwilling to confront them, Israel’s leadership appears to have concluded that kinetic action is the only remaining lever to secure the safety of its northern residents.
