🇺🇸 Comfort, Texas – July 4, 2025:
A devastating flash flood has killed at least 27 people, including 9 children, following a catastrophic weather event across Central Texas. The storm, which dumped over a month’s worth of rain in just hours, struck unexpectedly on Independence Day morning, overwhelming the Guadalupe River and leaving thousands stranded. Over 850 people were rescued, but dozens remain missing, including 27 girls from a Christian youth camp near the flood zone.
In the aftermath, a political and scientific debate has ignited over the role of the National Weather Service (NWS) and the consequences of recent budget and staffing cuts under President Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) program. Some state and local officials, including Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly and TDEM Chief W. Nim Kidd, suggested that the forecasts failed to reflect the severity of the flood. However, professional meteorologists and experts strongly disagree.
According to meteorologists Chris Vagasky and Matt Lanza, the NWS office in San Antonio correctly identified flood risks early in the week, issuing watches and advisories starting Monday and culminating in a flash flood emergency by 4:30 AM Friday. Despite this, official alerts weren’t widely disseminated to the public until around 5 AM, revealing a dangerous breakdown in emergency communication systems, not forecasting.
“The Weather Service was on the ball,” said Vagasky, emphasizing that the agency flagged “significant rainfall potential” after Tropical Storm Barry brought heavy moisture up from Mexico. This tropical influx created conditions ripe for what experts now call a 1-in-1,000-year event—meaning there was a less than 0.1% chance of such a storm happening in any given year. Over 20 feet of river surge were recorded within hours.
Cuts to NOAA and NWS—over 500 positions lost in 2025 alone—meant several offices were left unstaffed overnight, and critical weather balloon launches were reduced or canceled. These balloons help measure atmospheric saturation and wind behavior, both key in predicting localized extreme rainfall. Thankfully, a Thursday balloon launch did provide accurate atmospheric data, contributing to timely NWS alerts. Without such data, Lanza warned, forecasters would be “blind.”
Critics argue that the NWS did its job, but underfunded infrastructure, delayed local emergency responses, and insufficient public awareness systems amplified the disaster’s toll. This tragedy underscores the life-and-death importance of robust meteorological resources, especially as climate change accelerates extreme weather events across the U.S.
Texas, historically prone to floods, must now reconsider not just how it prepares—but how it communicates and responds in real time. As the climate crisis deepens, the need for fully funded, modernized forecasting agencies has never been more urgent.
