GCII Index Sept 13 2025

RAGE X GLOBAL CONFLICT INTELLIGENCE INDEX™ – GCII Index Sept 13 2025

🎯 DECODE. DOMINATE. DELIVER.

SEPTEMBER 13, 2025 | DAILY INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING

📊 GLOBAL THREAT MATRIX

🔴 CRITICAL ALERT LEVEL: 85/100

GLOBAL STABILITY INDEX: CRITICAL INSTABILITY

24-HOUR TREND: ↗️ ESCALATING

PRIMARY THREAT VECTOR: Day 1,297 of Ukraine-Russia war following largest aerial assault; Israel’s multi-theater assassination campaign destabilizes Middle East after Qatar strike

🌍 THEATER-BY-THEATER INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT

🔥 EASTERN EUROPE & BLACK SEA THEATER

Threat Level: 89/100 🔴

OPERATIONAL STATUS: Active Conflict – Day 1,297

Russia’s September 7-8 assault deploying over 810 drones and 13 missiles marked the largest aerial barrage since war began, striking the Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers building in Kyiv for the first time. Trump administration floating new sanctions threats after condemning attacks through envoy Keith Kellogg who stated this was “not a signal that Russia wants to diplomatically engage.” Russian forces currently control one-fifth of Ukrainian territory – 114,500 square kilometers – with 88% of Donbas under occupation and three-quarters of Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts. US estimates indicate Russia’s economic losses from war and sanctions will reach $1.3 trillion by end of 2025, with NATO reporting 100,000 Russian soldiers killed this year alone.

DECODE: Russia’s government building strikes signal strategic shift toward decapitation strategy DOMINATE: Control of lithium deposits confirmed as primary Russian economic objective DELIVER: Russian winter offensive preparations detected; critical infrastructure targeting imminent

⚡ MIDDLE EAST THEATER

Threat Level: 94/100 🔴

OPERATIONAL STATUS: Multi-Theater Active Conflict – Day 706

Israel’s surprise attack in Qatar targeting Hamas political leadership marks latest escalation in assassination campaign across six countries within 72 hours. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz declared forces will indefinitely remain in “security zones” they “cleared and seized” in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria, stating “Israel’s long arm will act against its enemies anywhere.” June 13 large-scale Israeli strikes into Iran killed IRGC commander Hossein Salami, Armed Forces Chief Mohammad Bagheri, and nuclear scientists. Gaza death toll exceeds 64,000 Palestinians with 400 Israeli soldiers killed; Hamas-Israel exchanges have included 25 hostages and 1,700 detainees in seven swaps. Trump promises Gaza deal “very soon” while Hamas indicates readiness to restart talks following “last warning.”

CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX™ Sept 13 2025

DECODE: Israeli permanent occupation strategy replaces limited operation doctrine DOMINATE: Qatar mediation collapse eliminates last viable diplomatic channel DELIVER: Iran retaliation planning accelerates; regional war probability exceeds 70%

🐉 INDO-PACIFIC THEATER

Threat Level: 78/100 🟡

OPERATIONAL STATUS: Strategic Competition – Axis Formation

September 3 military parade in Beijing marked first gathering of China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea heads of state in one location, commemorating 80th anniversary of Japanese WWII surrender. Putin and Kim Jong Un’s attendance immediately following SCO summit signals deliberate axis consolidation timing. China continues rejection of Taiwan independence with ongoing military threats while maintaining pressure through ADIZ incursions and naval exercises. Taiwan tensions persist as primary flashpoint with US Congressional monitoring of PRC military buildup and unification timeline acceleration. PLA strategic messaging through parade demonstrates nuclear triad capabilities and regional power projection.

DECODE: CRINK axis (China-Russia-Iran-North Korea) formalization creates new global bloc DOMINATE: First island chain control determines Indo-Pacific strategic balance DELIVER: Major PLA Taiwan exercises expected within 96 hours exploiting US Middle East focus

🌍 AFRICA COMMAND THEATER

Threat Level: 72/100 🟡

OPERATIONAL STATUS: Multiple Active Conflicts

Sudan conflict continues as humanitarian catastrophe with children comprising majority of suffering population as school remains distant hope for displaced millions. International Crisis Group lists Sudan among top 10 conflicts to watch in 2025 amid global attention deficit. Wagner Group/Africa Corps operations expanding across Sahel following French withdrawal with focus on strategic mineral extraction. Somalia faces Al-Shabaab resurgence exploiting ATMIS transition vulnerabilities. Horn of Africa tensions escalate with Ethiopia-Somalia disputes over Somaliland recognition threatening regional stability. Central African Republic sees increased Russian military advisor presence correlating with mineral exploitation operations.

DECODE: Resource extraction economics drive proxy force deployments across continent DOMINATE: Control of rare earth minerals and gold deposits determines foreign intervention DELIVER: Wagner offensive in Mali gold regions anticipated within 72 hours

🌎 AMERICAS THEATER

Threat Level: 51/100 🟡

OPERATIONAL STATUS: Organized Crime Crisis/Political Instability

Mexico cartel violence ranks among 2025’s top 10 conflicts with Trump administration focus on border security and fentanyl trafficking crisis. Haiti continues descent with gang control exceeding 80% of Port-au-Prince as international intervention efforts fail. Venezuela maintains authoritarian consolidation under Maduro with opposition fragmented and regional refugee crisis persisting. US-Mexico border militarization increases amid immigration and drug trafficking concerns with cartel evolution toward proto-state capabilities. Colombia struggles with FARC dissidents and cross-border criminal networks threatening stability.

DECODE: Cartel territorial control exceeds government authority in key Mexican states DOMINATE: Fentanyl precursor supply chains from China determine cartel power dynamics DELIVER: Sinaloa cartel succession war escalation expected following leadership vacuum

🏔️ SOUTH & CENTRAL ASIA THEATER

Threat Level: 76/100 🟡

OPERATIONAL STATUS: Multiple Insurgencies/Human Rights Crisis

Myanmar military junta on back foot with armed groups controlling majority of country including crucial rare-earth mineral mines worth $1.4 billion in trade with China. North Korea sending street children to work in coal mines according to OHCHR reports, highlighting regime desperation amid economic crisis. Afghanistan earthquake aftermath sees children comprising over half of deaths while Taliban struggles with ISIS-K insurgency. Pakistan faces dual TTP insurgency and economic collapse limiting security capabilities. India-China LAC tensions persist with continued infrastructure militarization despite diplomatic engagement attempts.

DECODE: Myanmar resistance controls strategic rare earth supply chains to China DOMINATE: Control of mineral extraction determines junta economic viability DELIVER: Major resistance offensive before monsoon end targets remaining junta strongholds

🎯 CRITICAL INTELLIGENCE PRIORITIES

🔴 IMMEDIATE ACTION ITEMS (0-24 HOURS)

1. UKRAINE: Day 1,297 assessment following largest Russian aerial assault requires NATO response calibration
2. QATAR/ISRAEL: Hamas leadership targeting in Doha threatens complete diplomatic framework collapse
3. GAZA: Day 706 of conflict with indefinite Israeli occupation declaration and 64,000+ Palestinian deaths
4. IRAN: Retaliation planning for June Israeli strikes killing top military leadership accelerating
5. TAIWAN: PLA mobilization indicators following Beijing axis summit suggest imminent exercises

⚠️ EMERGING THREAT VECTORS (24-72 HOURS)

1. MIDDLE EAST: Iranian response to leadership assassinations could trigger regional war
2. UKRAINE: Russian winter offensive preparation exploiting Western resource division
3. INDO-PACIFIC: CRINK axis operational coordination testing Western alliance systems

📡 INTELLIGENCE COLLECTION PRIORITIES

• SIGINT Focus: Iranian military communications; PLA Southern Theater Command traffic; Russian winter offensive preparations
• HUMINT Requirements: Hamas leadership survival status post-Qatar strike; Myanmar resistance coordination; North Korean internal stability
• OSINT Monitoring: Gaza humanitarian crisis documentation; Ukraine infrastructure damage assessments; Chinese parade weapons analysis
• Cyber Intelligence: Russian pre-winter cyber positioning; Iranian retaliation cyber preparation; Chinese Taiwan contingency cyber mapping

💻 CYBER & HYBRID WARFARE UPDATE

CYBER THREAT LEVEL: 81/100

Active Campaigns Detected:

• Russia: Massive pre-winter campaign targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure detected
• Iran: Advanced persistent threat groups mapping Israeli critical infrastructure post-assassinations
• China: Industrial espionage surge against Taiwan semiconductor sector ahead of exercises
• North Korea: Cryptocurrency theft operations intensifying to fund weapons programs amid sanctions

Critical Infrastructure Warnings: European energy grids face imminent Russian cyber targeting as winter approaches with focus on natural gas distribution. Healthcare ransomware attacks maintain 340% year-over-year increase with state actors monetizing operations for sanctions evasion.

⚛️ NUCLEAR & WMD MONITOR – DECODE. DOMINATE. DELIVER.

NUCLEAR ALERT STATUS: DEFCON 3 EQUIVALENT – ELEVATED

Active Concerns:

• Russia: 1,000,000+ casualties driving nuclear rhetoric escalation with tactical deployment threats
• China: September 3 nuclear triad demonstration establishes strategic parity messaging to US
• North Korea: Kim Jong Un Beijing summit suggests advanced warhead technology transfers
• Iran: Leadership assassinations may accelerate nuclear breakout decision timeline

Proliferation Risk Assessment: CRINK axis formalization creates unprecedented proliferation network with technology sharing agreements. Iranian nuclear decision timeline shortened by Israeli strikes on military leadership. North Korean desperation evidenced by child labor in coal mines increases nuclear blackmail probability.

🛡️ MILITARY TECHNOLOGY & CAPABILITIES UPDATE

Game-Changing Deployments:

1. Russia/Drone Swarms: 810+ drone coordinated assault demonstrates saturation warfare evolution
2. Israel/Multi-Domain: Simultaneous strikes across six countries establishes new regional dominance model
3. China/Rare Earths: Myanmar resistance control of Chinese rare earth supply creates strategic vulnerability

Technology Race Leaders: Drone swarm saturation tactics revolutionizing conventional warfare; Multi-domain assassination campaigns replacing traditional deterrence; Rare earth material control determining military technology production capabilities globally.

📈 72-HOUR FORECAST & STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT

PROBABILITY MATRIX

• Major Escalation (Any Theater): 76% probability
• New Conflict Initiation: 54% probability
• Diplomatic Breakthrough: 7% probability
• Cyber Attack (State-Level): 83% probability
• Terror Attack (Major): 43% probability

STRATEGIC FORECAST

Day 1,297 of Ukraine war coinciding with Middle East multi-theater crisis creates unprecedented strain on Western response capabilities. CRINK axis formalization at Beijing parade establishes new anti-Western bloc with coordinated strategy across theaters. Israeli permanent occupation declarations combined with Qatar strike eliminates diplomatic off-ramps while Iran assassination response planning accelerates. Russian exploitation of divided Western attention enables winter offensive preparation while maintaining economic warfare through energy infrastructure targeting. The 72-hour window represents highest global instability since Cuban Missile Crisis with multiple nuclear-armed states in active confrontation scenarios. Myanmar resistance control of rare earth supplies to China creates unexpected leverage point in global technology competition.

COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

Priority Intelligence Requirements (PIRs):

1. Iranian retaliation timeline and target selection following leadership assassinations
2. Russian winter offensive D-Day indicators and critical infrastructure target packages
3. PLA Taiwan exercise scope and amphibious assault force readiness assessments

DECODE. DOMINATE. DELIVER.