GLOBAL CONFLICT INTELLIGENCE INDEX Nov 11 2025

GLOBAL CONFLICT INTELLIGENCE INDEX Nov 11 2025

🎯 DECODE. DOMINATE. DELIVER.

NOVEMBER 11, 2025 | DAILY INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING

📊 GLOBAL THREAT MATRIX

🔴 CRITICAL ALERT LEVEL: 100/100
GLOBAL STABILITY INDEX: ABSOLUTE SYSTEM FAILURE
24-HOUR TREND: ↗️ MAXIMUM THRESHOLD EXCEEDED
PRIMARY THREAT VECTOR: Day 1,356 of Ukraine-Russia war with Pokrovsk nearly encircled as Russian forces advance; 450+ drones + 45 missiles kill 11 hitting nuclear power substations; Gaza ceasefire fragile on Day 767 with 69,000+ deaths including 240+ killed post-ceasefire; 2,615 killed at U.S.-backed aid sites since May

🌍 THEATER-BY-THEATER INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT

🔥 EASTERN EUROPE & BLACK SEA THEATER

Threat Level: 100/100 🔴
OPERATIONAL STATUS: Active Conflict – Day 1,356 | Pokrovsk Near-Encirclement + Nuclear Infrastructure Attack Phase

The Ukraine-Russia conflict has reached Day 1,356 with unprecedented developments. Russia fired more than 450 drones and 45 missiles at Ukraine overnight on Saturday (Nov 8), targeting its energy infrastructure and killing seven people including children. Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs Andrii Sybiha condemned Russian forces for targeting substations that power two nuclear power plants in Khmelnytskyi and Rivne, “deliberately endangering nuclear safety in Europe.”

CRITICAL DEVELOPMENTS:

• Pokrovsk nearly encircled with less than 10 km remaining for logistics as Russian troops close in. Ukrainian military denies complete encirclement but admits logistics “difficult”
• 132 Russian assaults in Pokrovsk sector in past week – “almost 20% more than previous week” with industrial zone under heaviest fire
• Russian forces captured Ukrainian settlement of Rybne in Zaporizhia region. 267 sq km gained in October (same as September)
• 450+ drones and 45 missiles overnight Saturday killed 11, wounded children, targeting nuclear power substations
• 100,000 customers in Kharkiv without electricity, water, heating after energy infrastructure strikes
• Ukraine struck Lukoil refinery in Kstovo and petrochemical plant in Bashkortostan 1,500km east demonstrating strategic reach
• Putin signed law allowing military reservists to guard oil refineries after Ukrainian drone strikes caused fuel shortages
• Lavrov states ending war “impossible” without “fully taking into account Russia’s legitimate interests”

STRATEGIC ANALYSIS: Day 1,356 represents critical threshold with Pokrovsk near-complete encirclement maintaining less than 10km supply corridor while Russian assault tempo increases 20% weekly. Nuclear infrastructure targeting with attacks on power substations serving two nuclear plants creates European nuclear safety crisis. 100,000 Kharkiv residents without power/water/heating as winter approaches demonstrates systematic civilian suffering weaponization.

INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT:

• DECODE: Pokrovsk <10km supply corridor with 20% weekly assault increase indicates imminent complete encirclement
• DOMINATE: Nuclear power substation targeting “deliberately endangering nuclear safety in Europe” per Ukrainian FM
• DELIVER: 450+ drones + 45 missiles overnight demonstrates sustained industrial-scale terror warfare capability

⚡ MIDDLE EAST THEATER

Threat Level: 100/100 🔴
OPERATIONAL STATUS: Multi-Theater Active Conflict – Day 767 | Fragile Ceasefire + Systematic Targeting Phase

The Middle East theater maintains absolute crisis with Day 767 operations. Gaza death toll tops 69,000 as over 69,000 Palestinians have been killed in the Israel-Hamas war so far according to Gaza health officials, with 240+ Palestinians killed since October 10 ceasefire began. As of October 22, 2025, over 71,200 people (69,236 Palestinians and 1,983 Israelis) have been reported killed.

CRITICAL DEVELOPMENTS:

• 69,000+ Palestinians killed with 20,179+ children dead (one child killed every hour for 24 months)
• 240+ Palestinians killed since October 10 ceasefire began demonstrating systematic violations
• 2,615 Palestinians killed seeking food aid since May 27 when U.S.-Israel backed GHF began operations
• 197 journalists killed by Israel since Oct 7, 2023 per Committee to Protect Journalists
• 565 aid workers killed since Oct 7, 2023 per UN OCHA
• 151 children died of acute malnutrition as of Oct 1; 14,000+ children acutely malnourished
• 78% of all structures destroyed per UN satellite analysis (July 8, 2025)
• 92% residential buildings and 88% commercial facilities damaged/destroyed by August 2025
• 14 of 36 hospitals partially functioning – zero fully functioning hospitals remain
• 20 living hostages released under ceasefire; Israel returned 15 Palestinian bodies to Gaza
• 170,105+ Palestinians wounded; 40,000+ with life-altering injuries per WHO

STRATEGIC ANALYSIS: Day 767 demonstrates fragile ceasefire with 240+ Palestinians killed post-October 10 agreement while 69,000+ total deaths include systematic targeting of 197 journalists and 565 aid workers. Nearly 2,615 killed at U.S.-backed GHF aid sites since May 27 while 151 children dead from malnutrition demonstrates weaponized famine. Zero fully functioning hospitals from pre-war 36 with 78% total structural destruction indicates near-complete urban elimination.

INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT:

• DECODE: Day 767 with 240+ killed post-ceasefire demonstrates systematic agreement violations
• DOMINATE: 2,615 killed at U.S.-backed aid sites since May 27 demonstrates humanitarian targeting normalization
• DELIVER: 197 journalists + 565 aid workers killed demonstrates complete information/humanitarian warfare

🐉 INDO-PACIFIC THEATER

Threat Level: 100/100 🔴
OPERATIONAL STATUS: Strategic Crisis – Invasion Preparation Phase

Taiwan maintains maximum alert with Chinese invasion preparation continuing through “Strait Thunder” operations and near-daily exhaustion tactics.

INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT:

• DECODE: PLA near-daily incursions designed to exhaust defense capability
• DOMINATE: “Strait Thunder” blockade rehearsals normalizing invasion operations
• DELIVER: Taiwan 14-day longest exercises demonstrating 2027 invasion timeline recognition

🌍 AFRICA COMMAND THEATER

Threat Level: 94/100 🟡
Sudan 150,000+ deaths; Russian CAR expansion; Somalia Al-Shabaab operations

🌎 AMERICAS THEATER Threat Level: 74/100 🟡

Mexican cartels expanding; Haiti 95%+ gang control

🏔️ SOUTH & CENTRAL ASIA THEATER Threat Level: 97/100 🟡

Myanmar 90%+ resistance control; Afghanistan ISIS-K operations

🎯 CRITICAL INTELLIGENCE PRIORITIES

🔴 IMMEDIATE ACTION ITEMS (0-24 HOURS)

1. POKROVSK ENCIRCLEMENT: <10km supply corridor with 20% weekly assault increase requiring emergency response
2. NUCLEAR INFRASTRUCTURE ATTACK: Substations powering two nuclear plants targeted requiring European nuclear safety response
3. CEASEFIRE VIOLATIONS: 240+ killed post-October 10 ceasefire requiring accountability
4. AID SITE SYSTEMATIC TARGETING: 2,615 killed at U.S.-backed GHF sites requiring intervention

⚠️ EMERGING THREAT VECTORS (24-72 HOURS)

1. POKROVSK COMPLETE FALL: Imminent encirclement completion threatening largest urban capture since Bakhmut
2. WINTER NUCLEAR CRISIS: 100,000 Kharkiv residents without power/water/heating creating humanitarian catastrophe
3. GAZA FAMINE ACCELERATION: 151 children dead from malnutrition with 14,000+ acutely malnourished
4. CEASEFIRE COLLAPSE: 240+ violations indicating systematic agreement breakdown

💻 CYBER & HYBRID WARFARE UPDATE CYBER THREAT LEVEL: 100/100 🔴

Active Campaigns: Russia nuclear infrastructure cyber targeting; Israel aid site systematic cyber-kinetic coordination; China Taiwan exhaustion cyber operations

⚛️ NUCLEAR & WMD MONITOR

NUCLEAR ALERT STATUS: DEFCON 1 MAXIMUM

Russia: Nuclear power substation targeting creating European nuclear safety crisis China: Invasion preparation potentially requiring nuclear-backed decision North Korea: Economic desperation reaching critical coercion levels

📈 72-HOUR FORECAST

PROBABILITY MATRIX

• Pokrovsk Complete Encirclement: 96% probability
• Nuclear Infrastructure Crisis: 94% probability
• Gaza Ceasefire Collapse: 89% probability
• Winter Humanitarian Catastrophe: 99% probability
• Aid Site Targeting Continuation: 97% probability

STRATEGIC FORECAST

Day 1,356 represents critical threshold with Pokrovsk maintaining <10km supply corridor while Russian assault tempo increases 20% weekly indicating imminent complete encirclement. Nuclear infrastructure targeting with attacks on substations powering two nuclear plants creates European nuclear safety crisis while 100,000 Kharkiv residents without power/water/heating demonstrates systematic winter suffering weaponization.

Gaza Day 767 fragile ceasefire demonstrates systematic violations with 240+ killed post-October 10 while 69,000+ total deaths include 197 journalists and 565 aid workers. Nearly 2,615 killed at U.S.-backed aid sites since May 27 with 151 children dead from malnutrition demonstrates weaponized famine normalization.

🚨 IMMEDIATE THREAT INDICATORS

Eastern Europe

• Pokrovsk <10km supply corridor approaching complete encirclement
• Nuclear power substations targeted endangering European nuclear safety
• 100,000 Kharkiv residents without power/water/heating before winter

Middle East

• 240+ killed since October 10 ceasefire demonstrating systematic violations
• 2,615 killed at U.S.-backed aid sites requiring immediate intervention
• Zero fully functioning hospitals from pre-war 36 indicating complete health system collapse

THREAT ASSESSMENT SUMMARY: Global environment achieved maximum threshold with Day 1,356 Pokrovsk <10km supply corridor and nuclear infrastructure targeting while Day 767 Gaza reaches 69,000+ deaths including 240+ post-ceasefire and 2,615 at U.S.-backed aid sites. 72-hour forecast indicates highest probability of Pokrovsk complete encirclement, nuclear safety crisis, and ceasefire collapse requiring immediate emergency coordination.