Introduction
The unfolding situation in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict has taken a disturbing turn. Azerbaijani forces have intensified their aggressive actions, raising serious concerns around international law and human rights. The international community must not overlook these unlawful advances and violations.
The Azerbaijan-Armenia Crisis: Expanding Frontlines and Geopolitical Stakes
Tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia are mounting, with each passing day revealing a darker facet of this complex crisis. With Azerbaijan launching a military offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh, the situation has already crossed critical boundaries. This report delves into the latest geopolitical and military developments.
US Travel Advisory: Cautionary Tale of Escalating Danger
• Regions at Risk: The US Embassy has advised against travel to various Armenian provinces, including Tavush, Gegharkunik, Yeraskh, Vayots Dzor, and Syunik, citing proximity to Azerbaijani armed forces and a build-up of military equipment.
• Strategic Corridors: Turkey and Azerbaijan are gearing up to forcibly open routes such as the “Zangezur Corridor,” exacerbating tensions in the already volatile region.
Azerbaijan’s Multi-Faceted Assault
• Artillery, UAVs, and Warplanes: In a display of military power, Azerbaijan has been using a mix of artillery, UAVs, and warplanes. Their objective seems two-fold: either to force Armenia into capitulation or to prepare for a broader ground offensive, which appears to have commenced on a limited scale.
• Continuous Combat: A steady level of combat activity is ongoing, notably in the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Despite not having fully verified information, explosions have been reported, including in the surrounding areas of Stepanakert.
Russia’s Potential Role
• Population Transfer: Recent developments suggest that Russian troops could potentially be responsible for facilitating the transfer of the population from Karabakh to Armenia after the hostilities cease.
This report aims to offer a comprehensive understanding of the unfolding Azerbaijan-Armenia crisis. Amid the artillery fire and diplomatic cold shoulders, the human and geopolitical toll continues to climb.
Azerbaijan’s recent announcement of a significant military offensive in the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh has heightened international concerns over escalating hostilities. These latest actions raise a myriad of questions, not only about the fate of ethnic Armenians in the area but also the broader geopolitical implications.
The Onslaught Begins: The New Face of Warfare
• Evacuation Orders: Azerbaijan has declared an “evacuation” of ethnic Armenians in what it terms “dangerous areas,” sparking immediate concerns of ethnic cleansing.
• Armed Conflict: Heavy shelling, gunfire, and air raid sirens have been reported in Nagorno-Karabakh. This alarming development follows the Azerbaijani defense ministry’s claim of undertaking “local anti-terrorist activities.”
• Pretext for War: Baku justifies its actions by attributing the destruction of its vehicles and the death of six—four soldiers and two civilians—to Armenian-planted landmines. However, there has been no substantiating evidence for these claims.
The Diplomatic Landscape: A Quagmire of Failed Negotiations
• EU-Azerbaijan Relations: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s past attempts to court Azerbaijan as an ally and alternative gas supplier to Russia have backfired amid the current turmoil.
• International Reactions: Despite warnings and calls for dialogue from entities such as the European Council and the U.S. State Department, Azerbaijan continues its aggressive military stance.
The Human Element: Lives in the Balance
• Trust Gap: Local Armenians such as Siranush Sargsyan have expressed distrust toward Azerbaijan’s claims of creating “humanitarian corridors,” stating that they have not received any prior warnings via SMS as alleged.
• Armenian Response: Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has called on international bodies like the U.N. Security Council and Russia for intervention, stressing the urgency of the situation.
• Humanitarian Crisis: Amid escalating hostilities, aid organizations have faced increasing challenges in delivering essential supplies to the beleaguered region.
Background Information
The Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict has deep-rooted historical causes and has witnessed several escalations in recent times. This latest surge in violence, marked by violations from Azerbaijani forces, calls for immediate international scrutiny.
Military Escalation
• Unlawful Shelling in Stepanakert: Civilian areas in Stepanakert are experiencing intense bombardment, an act against international humanitarian law.
• Violated Line of Contact: The Azerbaijani army is employing heavy artillery, UAVs, and combat aircraft in a full-scale assault along the line of contact.
• Illegal Capturing of Armenian Villages: Reports confirm that Azerbaijani forces have unlawfully captured two Armenian villages, intensifying the already-fragile situation.
Diplomatic Failures and International Involvement
• European Parliament’s Concern: With talks of sanctions against Azerbaijan, the European Parliament signals that the international community is taking note.
• Internal Dissent in Armenia: Despite the unprovoked aggression from Azerbaijan, protests against Prime Minister Pashinyan have erupted, reflecting internal challenges.
• Iran Rejects Russia’s “Zangezur Corridor” Proposal: Iran’s refusal adds complexity to an already volatile situation, notably without taking a stand against Azerbaijani aggression.
Information Warfare and Humanitarian Issues
• Disinformation: Azerbaijani authorities have claimed the capture of 60 Armenian combat positions, contributing to a climate of misinformation.
• Civilian Evacuations: Residents of six villages in Artsakh have been evacuated, underscoring the immediate risk to Armenian civilian lives.
• Explosion During Armenian Protests: Amid internal dissent, an explosion rocked a protest against Pashinyan, revealing a volatile social landscape that could be exploited by Azerbaijani forces.
• Turkey’s Role: Turkish President Erdogan’s comments on the “Zangezur corridor” signify a darkening cloud of international political maneuvering, which could further enable Azerbaijani aggression.
Conclusion
The situation remains volatile and is evolving rapidly. The international community must take immediate action to address these escalating tensions and prevent further humanitarian crises. Stay tuned for more updates.
