US Warns of “Imminent” Hamas Attack on Gaza Civilians; Guarantors Threaten Action

The Gaza peace deal is facing a catastrophic and imminent collapse, as the U.S. State Department has issued an urgent, late-night warning that it has “credible reports” of Hamas’s “immediate intention” to violate the ceasefire by launching an attack against the residents of Gaza.
In a series of rapid-fire alerts, the State Department announced it has formally notified the other guarantor countries—Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey—of this intelligence. The U.S. has labeled this “planned attack against Palestinian civilians” as a “direct and serious violation of the terms of the ceasefire” and a move that “would undermine the significant progress achieved.”
This warning represents a severe escalation of the crisis that has been brewing for days, transforming a political impasse into a direct threat of renewed violence, this time internally.
The U.S. statement, issued on behalf of the guarantor states, includes a direct and unambiguous threat to Hamas: “If Hamas continues this action, steps will be taken to protect the residents of Gaza and maintain the integrity of the ceasefire.”
This warning is the diplomatic formalization of the blunt threat issued by the U.S. President last week. After Hamas began redeploying 7,000 of its security forces into northern Gaza to “cleanse the strip” of “collaborators,” and reports emerged of journalists and rivals being killed, the President warned that if Hamas “continues to kill people in Gaza, which was not the Deal, we will have no choice but to go in and kill them.”
It now appears the U.S. has intelligence that this internal purge is escalating from sporadic reprisals into a pre-meditated, large-scale operation against the civilian population Hamas deems disloyal.
The U.S. and its Arab partners, who co-signed the guarantor agreement, are now publicly drawing a red line against this internal crackdown. The threat to “protect the residents of Gaza” is a clear signal that the U.S. will either authorize a resumption of Israeli military action to stop the purge or, in a more complex scenario, support action by the other guarantor states against Hamas.
This crisis comes as the peace deal is already on life support. “Phase Two” of the agreement—which includes the establishment of a new technocratic government and the release of thousands of Palestinian prisoners—is indefinitely stalled. Israel has sealed the Rafah crossing and refuses to proceed until Hamas returns the remains of at least 18 slain hostages, a precondition the group has so far failed to meet.
U.S. Senator JD Vance is currently en route to Israel in a last-ditch effort to save the agreement from the brink. However, this new, credible threat of a large-scale internal massacre by Hamas may make his mission impossible. The very deal that was celebrated at a global summit just five days ago as a “historic dawn” is now on the verge of being shattered, not by a violation between Israel and Hamas, but by Hamas’s planned actions against its own people.