“The Overthrow of the Ayatollahs”: Israeli Intelligence Predicts Regime Collapse Following US Strike

As the United States military finalizes its preparations for a potential “Zero Hour” air campaign against Iran, officials in Jerusalem are forecasting an outcome that extends far beyond dismantled nuclear centrifuges. According to a senior Israeli security source speaking to the Hebrew-language daily Israel Hayom, an American military intervention “will most likely lead to the overthrow of the ayatollahs.”
The Tipping Point
The Israeli assessment suggests that the Islamic Republic is currently operating like a house of cards. While the Pentagon’s stated objective remains strictly focused on eliminating Tehran’s nuclear infrastructure and ballistic missile capabilities, Jerusalem believes that the sheer kinetic force of a U.S. strike will fatally fracture the regime’s internal security apparatus.
This prediction is heavily grounded in the current, explosive domestic situation inside Iran. Over the past 72 hours, fierce anti-government protests have surged across major university campuses in Tehran. Students have openly clashed with the state-backed Basij militia, chanting “Death to the Dictator” and burning regime symbols. Israeli intelligence assesses that if American bunker-busters and stealth fighters decapitate the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) command structure, the supreme leadership will be left utterly defenseless against a massive, nationwide civilian uprising.
A Strategic Convergence
This perspective highlights a profound strategic alignment between Israel’s long-term geopolitical goals and the Trump administration’s immediate military ultimatum.
* The Military Shockwave: A concentrated U.S. strike targeting IRGC bases, missile manufacturing plants, and deeply buried nuclear bunkers would instantly neutralize the regime’s primary enforcement arm.
* The Internal Vacuum: Without the IRGC’s ability to brutally suppress domestic dissent, the massive opposition movement—already emboldened by the CIA’s recent public Farsi-language recruitment drive—could rapidly seize control of the capital.
The “Day After” Calculations
For over a week, the prospect of a U.S. strike has panicked regional Arab allies, who fear catastrophic retaliatory spillover and have subsequently barred U.S. offensive staging from their territories. However, the Israeli perspective offers a vastly different calculation: the ultimate reward outweighs the immediate risk.
By taking the unprecedented step of hosting U.S. F-22 Raptors at its air bases and openly bracing for proxy retaliation, Israel has positioned itself as the vanguard of a campaign that it believes will not just delay Iran’s nuclear breakout timeline, but permanently erase the Islamic Republic from the Middle Eastern chessboard.