Gulf Residents on Edge: Should You Worry About Iranian Strikes?

For millions of expatriates and citizens living in the GCC—specifically the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait—the prospect of a U.S.-Iran war raises a singular, terrifying question: Are we in the blast radius?
The short answer, as geopolitical risks mount, is yes, but the timeline matters.
With the United States evacuating non-essential troops from Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar and President Trump reviewing options to strike Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, the region is bracing for a retaliatory cycle. Analysts generally divide the threat to Gulf residents into two distinct phases of escalation.
Phase 1: The Military Exchange
In the immediate aftermath of a U.S. strike, Iran’s counter-attack will almost certainly focus on U.S. military assets.
* The Targets: Al Udeid (Qatar), Al Dhafra (UAE), NSA Bahrain, and Ali Al Salem (Kuwait).
* The Risk: These facilities are often located kilometers away from city centers. While the risk of a wayward missile or falling interceptor debris is real, the intent of the Iranian barrage would be to degrade U.S. airpower, not to kill civilians in Dubai or Doha. The evacuation of Al Udeid suggests the U.S. believes this phase is imminent.
Phase 2: The “Desperation” Escalation
The calculus changes dramatically if the conflict shifts from a punitive strike to an existential war. If the U.S. campaign threatens the survival of the Islamic Republic—by decapitating the leadership or erasing its nuclear program—Tehran may abandon restraint.
* The Targets: Critical infrastructure (desalination plants, oil refineries) and potentially major city centers like Riyadh or Dubai.
* The Logic: This is the “Samson Option.” By targeting the economic hubs of the Gulf, Iran aims to inflict such unbearable economic and psychological pain that these nations force the U.S. to halt its attack.
* The Weaponry: Iran possesses thousands of short-range ballistic missiles and loitering drones specifically designed to overwhelm the Patriot and THAAD defense systems protecting these cities.
The Bottom Line
For now, the war remains a “military-on-military” scenario. But the “Tehran Massacre” and the regime’s admission of 2,000 dead suggest a leadership that is cornered and bleeding. A cornered regime is unpredictable. If the Mullahs believe they are going to lose power, the glass towers of the Gulf could become pawns in their fight for survival.