For centuries, civilizations have debated the true measure of wealth — gold, the eternal store of value, versus the paper proxy that rules modern trade: the dollar. Today, that debate seems to be tilting back toward gold’s favor. According to a recent forecast by Goldman Sachs, gold prices could soar to $4,900 per ounce by the end of this year, signaling the possible decline of the dollar’s global supremacy.
Historically, when empires sought stability, they turned to metal. During the Ottoman era, peasants were paid in kind, their labor valued in grain or goods. Eventually, compensation evolved into precious metals — gold, silver, and copper — giving birth to the term metlik (from metallic). The Ottoman treasury understood a vital truth: gold was not merely money — it was value itself.
At the time, the Ottoman majidi gold lira was worth 100 gold piastres; the British pound stood at 110, while the French and Russian equivalents hovered around 87. Monetary value was rooted in tangible weight, not faith in a financial institution. But as global capitalism took shape, gold’s role transformed — from being a commodity of trade to becoming the ultimate standard of value.
Throughout the 19th and early 20th centuries, paper money was only as strong as the gold that backed it. Nations minted and printed currency in proportion to their gold reserves, ensuring that every note could, in theory, be redeemed for metal. But as economies expanded and wars demanded spending beyond reserves, gold’s discipline became inconvenient.
By the 1970s, the U.S. Federal Reserve officially ended gold convertibility, shifting the world onto a new paradigm — the Dollar Standard. Gold was demoted to a financial asset, while the dollar ascended to global dominance. Yet the fundamental truth remained: when crises erupt, investors and nations alike return to the “original money.”
Every financial downturn has reminded the world of gold’s resilience. During recessions, pandemics, and wars, central banks have quietly increased their gold reserves. As inflation surges and currencies lose credibility, gold reclaims its ancient throne.
Today, that moment seems near again. Post-pandemic economies are struggling under stagflation, the result of weak growth and soaring prices. Despite a year of U.S. interest rate hikes, the dollar’s purchasing power continues to erode. Political uncertainty, rising protectionism — particularly under President Trump’s economic nationalism — and speculative bubbles in markets such as cryptocurrency have all accelerated the dollar’s fatigue.
In this climate, gold shines brighter than ever. Its rise reflects not only investor anxiety but also a deeper loss of faith in fiat currencies. Analysts suggest that only a renewed global recession, which could suppress inflation, might slow gold’s climb. But as long as inflation persists and economic instability deepens, the shift from paper to metal will continue.
Goldman Sachs’ projection of $4,900 per ounce encapsulates more than a market forecast — it signals a philosophical return. When the world loses faith in the proxy, it seeks refuge in the real. As history has always shown, when the original appears, the substitute fades.
And so, as global investors, central banks, and even nations quietly move toward bullion, one truth echoes through time:
When gold returns, the dollar steps aside.
