Lebanon is facing a precarious “moment of truth” in October 2025, caught between intense international pressure to disarm Hezbollah and the Iran-backed group’s defiant efforts to reconstitute its forces. Following the devastating conflict with Israel in 2023-2024, many analysts believed a historic opportunity had emerged to resolve the “Hezbollah problem” and restore state sovereignty. However, one year after the November 2024 ceasefire, that window appears to be closing.
The Lebanese government, led by President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, took the unprecedented step in August 2025 of ordering the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) to create a plan for establishing a state monopoly on all weapons. This plan, backed by the U.S., was seen as a courageous and historic decision.
In response, the LAF began a campaign to seize hidden Hezbollah arms caches in southern Lebanon. According to security sources, this operation was so extensive that by late October 2025, the army had reportedly run out of its own explosives used for destroying the weapon depots.
Despite this initial progress, the disarmament process has stalled. Key challenges include:
* Political Paralysis: The Lebanese cabinet is divided. Hezbollah-affiliated ministers have protested the disarmament plan, and the group’s leadership has publicly refused to disarm its forces north of the Litani River, warning it could lead to “civil war.”
* LAF Hesitancy: The Lebanese army is walking a political tightrope. While it has acted on weapons caches in the south, it is reportedly hesitant to move against Hezbollah strongholds north of the Litani without a broader political consensus, fearing a direct confrontation.
* Hezbollah Re-Arming: Israel and Western intelligence accuse Hezbollah of actively violating the ceasefire to rebuild its military infrastructure. The IDF is conducting near-daily airstrikes, targeting operatives and weapons smuggling routes, stating it will “remove any threat.”
* International Frustration: The U.S. has grown impatient. Deputy Special Envoy Morgan Ortagus arrived in Beirut on October 27 to warn Lebanese officials of a “major confrontation” with Israel if genuine steps to disarm Hezbollah are not taken.
While Hezbollah has been militarily weakened and its “resistance” rhetoric has lost appeal for some Lebanese, it remains a powerful armed and political force. The government is now stuck: it cannot force disarmament without risking civil strife, but it cannot ignore it without risking a new war with Israel and the loss of critical international aid.
Analysts conclude that while the 2024 war created a “once-in-a-generation opportunity,” Lebanon’s deep-seated political divisions and the army’s reluctance to confront Hezbollah directly mean this opportunity may have been missed, leaving the country in a state of perilous instability.
