The Paradoxical Outcome: Israel’s Military Gains vs. Its Global Isolation

The conclusion of the two-year war in the Gaza Strip, marked by the Phase One ceasefire agreement, presents a deeply paradoxical outcome: Israel achieved a clear military victory over Hamas but suffered a devastating defeat in the court of global public opinion. The conflict, which began in the aftermath of the October 7, 2023, attacks, has fundamentally reshaped the Middle East and left Israel more internationally isolated than at any point in recent history. The true cost of the military success is now measured not in territorial control, but in the profound erosion of international support and the permanent damage to its political standing.
The Military Outcome: Weakened, But Not Eliminated
From a purely military perspective, Israel achieved a decisive, though incomplete, tactical victory over its immediate adversaries.
◦ Decimation of Infrastructure: The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) inflicted overwhelming damage on the Gaza Strip, destroying or severely damaging nearly two-thirds (63%) of all its buildings, eliminating much of Hamas’s above-ground governance structure, and destroying large segments of its military infrastructure. Israel seized effective territorial control over roughly 53% of the Gaza Strip under the terms of the initial withdrawal in the ceasefire deal.
◦ Regional Assertion: The conflict was not confined to Gaza. It escalated into a major regional confrontation, with Israel engaging in combat with Iran and its proxies, including Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthi rebels. Israel inflicted major losses on these groups, using both conventional and air strikes, and even engaged in direct strikes against Iran’s military and nuclear program. This demonstrated a hard-power preeminence in the region.
◦ Failure to Achieve Final Goal: Despite the devastation inflicted, Israel failed to achieve its core, stated war goals: the total elimination of Hamas and the unconditional return of all hostages. Hamas, though militarily weakened, proved resilient. Its leadership survived, and it held onto the remaining hostages—its ultimate bargaining chip—forcing Israel into the ultimate political concession: a mass prisoner exchange and a partial withdrawal. The classified Israeli military intelligence databases still list tens of thousands of individuals considered to be Hamas militants who remain alive, suggesting the group is far from being eliminated.
◦ Hamas’s Costly “Victory”: For Hamas, its survival and its ability to secure the release of nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners—including those serving life sentences—in exchange for the remaining hostages can be framed as a costly political victory. The group demonstrated that it can still challenge Israel’s security dominance and force major political concessions, despite the monumental human cost to the Palestinian people.
The Public Opinion War: A Devastating Defeat
While the IDF was winning battles on the ground, the Israeli government was comprehensively losing the narrative war on the global stage, leading to unprecedented political and diplomatic isolation.
◦ Widespread Skepticism of the Operation: The international community reacted with growing condemnation to the war’s devastating humanitarian toll. Polling in the United States, Israel’s most vital ally, showed significant shifts. The proportion of Americans who viewed the Israeli government unfavorably rose to 59%, while the number who believed Israel was “going too far” in its military operations climbed to 39%. Gallup polling showed support for Israel among Americans dropping to the lowest point in 25 years (46%).
◦ Allegations of War Crimes and Genocide: The immense scale of civilian casualties and the humanitarian crisis, which saw famine confirmed in parts of Gaza due to restrictions on aid, prompted severe international rebukes. A UN Commission found that Israel was responsible for the commission of genocide in Gaza, concluding that the intent to destroy Palestinians in the enclave was the “only reasonable inference.” Human Rights Watch reported that the forced displacement and destruction of over 60% of Gaza’s buildings constituted ethnic cleansing in some areas and a “crime against humanity.”
◦ International Isolation: The carnage deepened Israel’s diplomatic isolation. Key Arab partners, like Saudi Arabia, who were on the verge of a historic normalization deal before October 7, adopted a significantly stronger pro-Palestinian position, halting the normalization process entirely. The war fueled a surge of anti-Israeli sentiment worldwide and intensified global protest movements.
◦ Domestic Division: The defeat in the public opinion war was mirrored by a political crisis at home. A large majority of the Israeli public (64%) demanded that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accept responsibility for the security failures of October 7 and resign, demonstrating a profound internal loss of confidence in the leadership that prosecuted the war.
The Paradoxical Balance Sheet
The final balance sheet of the two-year war is one of stark contrast:
| Domain | Israel’s Status | Hamas’s Status | Long-Term Implications |
|—|—|—|—|
| Military | Dominant, 53% territorial control, regional enemies weakened. | Weakened, but not eliminated; retained capability to fight and maintain influence. | Threat of renewed conflict is high; full disarmament remains unresolved. |
| Political/Diplomatic | Severely Isolated. Unfavorable global opinion of government at all-time highs. Normalization derailed. | Gained political leverage; forced concessions from Israel, positioning itself as a necessary negotiating partner. | Gaza reconstruction unlikely without security guarantees; Israel must undertake major political reform to regain international standing. |
| Strategic Goal | Failed to achieve total elimination of Hamas and unconditional return of hostages. | Achieved immediate ceasefire, mass prisoner release, and forced initial Israeli withdrawal. | Future of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains volatile and unresolved. |
In conclusion, Israel won the battles and controlled the ground, but its military campaign came at the cost of global legitimacy and diplomatic stability. The true victor is currently undetermined, lying somewhere in the complex, unfinished negotiations of the peace plan’s next phase.