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GLOBAL CONFLICT INTELLIGENCE INDEX Oct 26 2025

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Russia Launches Major Offensive on Avdiivka as Ukraine Strikes Back with US Arms

by Carlos Kfoury
2 months ago
in Intelligence
Reading Time: 2 mins read
GLOBAL CONFLICT INTELLIGENCE INDEX Oct 26 2025

GLOBAL CONFLICT INTELLIGENCE INDEX Oct 26 2025

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The war in Ukraine has entered a new, intense phase as Russia has launched one of its largest ground offensives in months, throwing significant armored and infantry forces into a major assault aimed at encircling the heavily fortified city of Avdiivka in the Donetsk region. The attack comes as Ukrainian forces have begun to leverage a landmark US policy shift, using long-range American-supplied weapons to strike military targets deep inside Russia for the first time.
The epicenter of the fighting is now Avdiivka, a critical Ukrainian stronghold that has resisted Russian capture since 2014. Ukrainian military officials report that the Russian offensive began with ferocious artillery bombardments, followed by multiple waves of attacks involving tanks, armored fighting vehicles, and infantry. The objective appears to be a classic pincer movement to cut off the city and trap its defenders, mirroring the tactics used in the brutal battle for Bakhmut. The fighting is described as extremely heavy, with fierce clashes also continuing around Bakhmut and Marinka as the Kremlin pushes its grinding campaign to seize the rest of the Donbas.
While Ukraine focuses on defense in the east, it has opened a new front in its strategic counter-offensive. Following the recent authorization from the White House, Kyiv has started to methodically dismantle Russia’s “sanctuary.” Although Ukrainian officials have remained tight-lipped, explosions have been reported at Russian airbases and logistics depots in the Belgorod and Kursk regions, consistent with strikes from long-range systems like ATACMS missiles. This new capability allows Ukraine to degrade Russia’s ability to wage war by striking command centers, ammunition dumps, and troop concentrations far from the front lines.
Meanwhile, the situation on the southern front in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson remains a punishing war of attrition. The front lines have seen little movement, with both sides engaged in relentless artillery duels and a constant, deadly battle between drones. Ukrainian forces continue to successfully defend their hard-won bridgehead on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River, repelling Russian attempts to eliminate the foothold.
This all unfolds against a backdrop of soaring tensions across Europe. A widespread “hybrid warfare” campaign, attributed to Russia, continues to target NATO countries with disruptive drone incursions at airports and military bases. This has forced the alliance to significantly increase its military readiness on the eastern flank, creating a volatile environment as the conventional war in Ukraine rages on with renewed ferocity.

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