RAGE X GCII INTELLIGENCE 22 JULY 2025

Analysis conducted: 06:00 UTC

GLOBAL THREAT SUMMARY:

🔴 CRITICAL: 2 conflicts

🟠 HIGH: 3 conflicts

🟡 ELEVATED: 3 conflicts

🔵 WATCHLIST: 2 situations

🟢 RESOLVED: 1 in last 24h

Table 1: 24-Hour Global Casualty Estimates (06:00 UTC 21 JUL 25 – 06:00 UTC 22 JUL 25)

CRITICAL CONFLICTS (🔴):

1. Russia-Ukraine War – Eastern & Northern Ukraine
   • Parties: Russian Federation Armed Forces vs. Armed Forces of Ukraine.
   • Casualties (24h): Russian Forces: 1,090 personnel (killed and wounded); Equipment losses include 1 tank, 7 armored fighting vehicles, 43 artillery systems, and 256 UAVs.¹ Ukrainian Civilians: 2 KIA, 15 WIA in Kyiv from a large-scale Russian strike.³ (Confidence: Probable/Verified)
   • Status: Russia executed one of its largest coordinated air attacks of the war, launching a massive wave of drones and missiles against Ukrainian population centers and infrastructure. Concurrently, intense attritional ground combat continues in Sumy Oblast, where both sides have made marginal, localized advances in a highly fluid battlespace.⁴The air assault on the night of July 20-21 involved a complex strike package of 426 Shahed-type drones (both strike and decoy variants), supplemented by Kh-46 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles, Kalibr sea-launched cruise missiles, and Kh-101 air-launched cruise missiles.4 The attack caused civilian casualties and significant damage in Kyiv, including to the entrance of a metro station, as well as striking critical infrastructure in Ivano-Frankivsk and Kharkiv oblasts.4 This operation demonstrates a clear strategic shift in Russia’s air campaign. Analysis of recent strike patterns shows a 31% average monthly growth in drone usage in June and July, with projections indicating a Russian capacity to launch up to 2,000 drones in a single night by November 2025.5 This is enabled by expanded domestic production, such as at the Alabuga facility, and the tactical use of decoy drones to saturate and exhaust Ukrainian air defense systems, thereby creating corridors for more destructive and expensive missile assets.5 This approach represents a move from precision strikes to a war of attrition against Ukraine’s air defense network itself.
   • Escalation Risk: High. Russia’s demonstrated capability and intent to launch massive drone swarms indicate this attrition strategy will continue, with further large-scale strikes highly probable in the next 72 hours. The fluid front in Sumy Oblast, where geolocated footage confirms recent marginal Russian advances near Kindrativka and Yablunivka ⁴, could see either side commit additional reserves to exploit tactical gains, risking a significant localized escalation.
   • International Response: The Ukraine Defense Contact Group convened on July 21, resulting in new pledges of support specifically tailored to counter Russia’s evolving threat. Germany committed five additional Patriot air defense systems, while the Netherlands and Norway pledged significant funding for Ukrainian domestic production of interceptor drones and for F-16 maintenance.⁴ The United Kingdom announced a “50-day drive” to arm Ukraine, linking it to a U.S. diplomatic ultimatum regarding sanctions against Russia.⁴
2. Israel-Gaza Conflict – Gaza Strip
   • Parties: Israel Defense Forces (IDF) vs. Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), and other Palestinian militant factions.
   • Casualties (24h): Palestinian: 77 KIA, 376 WIA, according to the Gaza Health Ministry.¹⁰ This figure includes at least 20 people killed in various strikes on July 22 and a reported 20 deaths from starvation over the past 48 hours.¹¹ IDF: 1 KIA (Sgt. Maj. (res.) Vladimir Loza) in southern Gaza on July 21.¹³ (Confidence: Probable/Verified)
   • Status: The IDF has launched a major new ground offensive into Deir el-Balah in central Gaza, an area previously designated a refuge for displaced persons and a hub for aid organizations.¹⁵ The operation, preceded by evacuation orders, involves tanks and bulldozers and marks the first time ground troops have operated in the area.¹⁶ The expansion of military operations into this last relative safe zone has rendered the entire territory an active combat zone, with the UN reporting that 87.8% of Gaza is now under evacuation orders or inside Israeli military zones.¹⁶This tactical shift has precipitated a severe escalation of the humanitarian crisis. The Gaza Health Ministry reported 15 deaths from famine and malnutrition in the last 24 hours alone 15, and UNRWA reports that its healthcare workers are fainting from hunger while on duty.15 Friction with international organizations has intensified, highlighted by an Israeli raid on a World Health Organization (WHO) compound in Deir el-Balah where staff were reportedly detained at gunpoint.13 This action disrupts the final remaining aid hub and increases the risk of a complete breakdown in humanitarian distribution.
   • Escalation Risk: High. The expansion of ground operations into Deir el-Balah, an area with a dense concentration of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) and aid infrastructure, significantly increases the risk of mass casualty events and direct conflict with humanitarian workers. The raid on the WHO compound has already drawn sharp international condemnation and signals a dangerously high-risk operational environment for all non-combatants.
   • International Response: A group of 25 nations, including the UK and France, issued a joint statement demanding the war “must end now” and denouncing Israel’s aid delivery model.¹⁵ The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights warned of “extremely high” risks of unlawful killings resulting from the Deir el-Balah operation.¹⁵

HIGH PRIORITY (🟠):

1. Israel-Houthi Conflict – Yemen & Red Sea
   • Parties: Israel Defense Forces vs. Houthi Movement (Ansar Allah).
   • Casualties (24h): None reported on either side.²⁰ (Confidence: Verified)
   • Status: The conflict escalated significantly with direct, tit-for-tat military strikes on strategic infrastructure. On July 21, the IDF conducted airstrikes on Yemen’s Hodeidah port, targeting what it described as “military infrastructure of the Houthi terror regime” being used to restore previously damaged facilities.²² In a direct and swift retaliation on July 22, the Houthis launched a ballistic missile targeting central Israel. The missile, which triggered air raid sirens across multiple towns including near Tel Aviv, was successfully intercepted by Israeli air defenses.²⁰ The Houthis claimed responsibility, stating they had used a “Palestine 2” hypersonic missile in an attempt to strike Ben Gurion International Airport.²¹
   • Escalation Risk: Critical. This cycle represents a direct state-level exchange of fire targeting critical national infrastructure, a significant escalation from previous Houthi attacks on maritime shipping. The use of a ballistic missile against Israel’s primary international airport is a major provocation. A successful strike on such a high-value target would almost certainly trigger a massive Israeli response, potentially including a broader campaign against Houthi command, control, and launch capabilities, which could draw in other regional actors.
   • International Response: No specific international response to this 24-hour cycle of escalation has been noted, but it occurs within the broader context of ongoing US-led multinational efforts to secure Red Sea shipping lanes against Houthi attacks.²⁵
2. Sudan Civil War – Darfur & Kordofan Regions
   • Parties: Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) vs. Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and allied militias.
   • Casualties (24h): No specific combat casualty figures for the last 24 hours are available. However, an association of Sudanese doctors reported a severe cholera outbreak in Tawila, North Darfur, with over 1,300 confirmed cases in the past week, a direct consequence of the conflict’s impact on public health infrastructure.²⁶ Fighting in the preceding days (since July 10) resulted in hundreds of civilian deaths in North and West Kordofan from RSF attacks and SAF airstrikes.²⁸ (Confidence: Probable)
   • Status: Intense attritional warfare continues for control of key positions in the Kordofan and Darfur regions, with both the SAF and RSF engaged in battles for strategic towns like el Fasher, Babanusa, and Kadugli.²⁹ The humanitarian crisis is deepening exponentially; the UN now reports 12 million people have been forcibly displaced since the conflict began in April 2023.³¹ With 70% of hospitals in conflict zones non-functional, the healthcare system has effectively collapsed.³² Aid access is severely restricted by both parties, and famine conditions are present in multiple areas.²⁹
   • Escalation Risk: High. The concentration of forces around remaining SAF strongholds, particularly el Fasher, suggests the RSF is preparing for a major offensive to consolidate its control over the entirety of Darfur. The ongoing collapse of the healthcare system and the uncontrolled spread of diseases like cholera will exacerbate the humanitarian catastrophe, increasing the risk of state failure and further regional destabilization.
   • International Response: A Westminster Hall debate on the humanitarian situation is scheduled for July 22 in the United Kingdom Parliament.³³ The UN continues to highlight the crisis, but tangible military or large-scale diplomatic intervention remains absent.³⁴
3. Syria – Southern Clashes & International Escalation
   • Parties: Syrian Transitional Government & allied Sunni Bedouin tribes vs. local Druze militias. External belligerent: Israel Defense Forces.
   • Casualties (24h): No new combat casualties reported. A fragile, US-brokered ceasefire appears to be holding as of July 21.³⁵ The focus has shifted to the evacuation of Bedouin civilians from Sweida province under Syrian Red Crescent supervision.³⁷ The preceding fighting (July 13-17) resulted in an estimated 300 to 940 people killed.³⁸ (Confidence: Verified)
   • Status: In accordance with the ceasefire agreement, Syrian government forces have withdrawn from Sweida province, leaving internal security to local Druze factions.⁴⁰ The situation remains highly tense, with credible reports of revenge attacks by Druze militias against Bedouin civilians prior to the evacuations.⁴⁰ The local conflict has drawn in significant international military action, fundamentally altering its dynamics. In the preceding days, Israel launched extensive airstrikes in support of the Druze, culminating in an unprecedented strike on the Syrian Defense Ministry headquarters in central Damascus.³⁸ In a clear sign of preparation for further action, the IDF has redeployed a brigade from Gaza to the Golan Heights.³⁸
   • Escalation Risk: High. While the local ceasefire is holding, the direct Israeli military intervention has established a new strategic reality. Israel’s stated intent to maintain a demilitarized zone in southern Syria and act as a protector of the Druze community creates a firm red line for the new Syrian government.⁴⁰ Any attempt by Damascus to re-assert military control in Sweida could trigger further, and potentially more severe, Israeli strikes, risking a direct interstate war.
   • International Response: The United States and Turkey were actively involved in mediating the ceasefire.⁴⁰ The U.S. State Department has publicly expressed concern over the Israeli escalation.⁴¹

ELEVATED WATCH (🟡):

1. Myanmar Civil War – Shan State
   • Parties: Myanmar Military Junta (Tatmadaw) vs. Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA).
   • Status: The Myanmar Junta has successfully recaptured the strategic town of Nawnghkio in northern Shan State after a grueling 11-month campaign, marking a significant tactical victory.⁴³ The win was achieved through the sustained application of overwhelming firepower, including extensive air and artillery bombardment.⁴⁵ The junta’s deputy chief, Soe Win, visited the town on July 21 to consolidate control and announce rehabilitation efforts, with schools set to reopen on July 22.⁴⁶
   • Escalation Risk: Medium.
   • International Stakeholders: China.
2. Sahel Insurgency – Mali
   • Parties: Malian Armed Forces & Wagner Group vs. Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM).
   • Status: A Human Rights Watch report released on July 22 details a pattern of systematic summary executions and enforced disappearances of ethnic Fulani civilians by Malian forces and the Wagner Group between January and May 2025, underscoring the brutal nature of the counter-insurgency campaign.⁴⁸
   • Escalation Risk: Medium.
   • International Stakeholders: Russia.
3. Israel-Lebanon Border Tensions
   • Parties: Israel Defense Forces vs. Hezbollah.
   • Status: An Israeli drone strike killed a Hezbollah operative, identified as Mohammad Fadi Shaito, in the town of at-Tiri, southern Lebanon, on July 21.³⁷ This targeted killing is the latest in a series of intermittent Israeli strikes and ground operations against Hezbollah targets, which violate a November 2024 ceasefire but are framed by the IDF as necessary to prevent Hezbollah from re-establishing military infrastructure south of the Litani River.⁴⁹
   • Escalation Risk: Medium.
   • International Stakeholders: United States, UNIFIL.

WATCHLIST (🔵):

• United Kingdom / Europe – US Nuclear Deployment: The reported stationing of US nuclear weapons, likely B61 tactical gravity bombs, in the United Kingdom for the first time since 2008 represents a significant shift in NATO’s nuclear posture and force readiness.⁵²Risk Assessment: This is a strategic deterrence move aimed at Russia. While not indicative of imminent conflict, it raises the strategic stakes in Europe and increases the potential for nuclear signaling and miscalculation during future crises.
• Global / Cyber – Microsoft SharePoint Vulnerability: State-sponsored and criminal cyber actors are actively exploiting a critical vulnerability (CVE-2025-53770) in on-premises Microsoft SharePoint Servers, affecting government agencies, schools, and critical infrastructure globally.⁵⁴Risk Assessment: The ongoing exploitation poses a high risk of espionage, data breaches, and ransomware attacks against sensitive government and corporate networks.

NEWLY RESOLVED (🟢):

• Democratic Republic of Congo vs. M23 Rebels – Peace Agreement – Duration: ~3 months of mediation – Outcome: On July 19, 2025, in Doha, Qatar, the government of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and the M23 rebel group signed a “Declaration of Principles”.⁵⁶ The agreement commits both parties to a permanent ceasefire, the restoration of state authority in rebel-held areas of eastern Congo, and sets a deadline of August 18, 2025, for a final, comprehensive peace deal.⁵⁹ This represents a significant diplomatic breakthrough in a long-running conflict, mediated by Qatar with support from the United States and the African Union.⁵⁸

INTELLIGENCE GAPS:

• Combatant Casualty Figures: Reliable, independently verified casualty numbers for Hamas/PIJ fighters in Gaza, SAF/RSF forces in Sudan, and both sides in the Myanmar conflict are non-existent. Reporting relies on partisan sources or broad estimates.
• Attribution of Cyber Attacks: While the SharePoint vulnerability is being exploited, definitive attribution of specific breaches to state-sponsored actors requires further technical intelligence. Current reporting is from cybersecurity firms and government advisories.⁵⁴
• Unconfirmed Reports: Reports of 20 starvation deaths in Gaza in the last 48 hours originate from a Hamas health official and require independent verification.¹¹ Claims of specific ground advances in Ukraine from milblogger sources require geolocated visual confirmation.⁴

72-HOUR FORECAST:

• Highest escalation risk: Israel-Houthi Conflict. The direct exchange of fire on critical national infrastructure (Hodeidah port, Ben Gurion airport) has pushed this conflict to a new and dangerous level. A successful Houthi strike or a large-scale Israeli retaliatory campaign are both plausible within the next 72 hours and would represent a major regional escalation.
• Potential new flashpoints: Israel-Lebanon Border. Following the targeted killing of a Hezbollah operative, a retaliatory attack from Hezbollah is possible. While likely to be calibrated to avoid all-out war, any miscalculation by either side could rapidly escalate the situation beyond the current low-level exchanges.
• Resolution opportunities: Syria (Sweida). The US-brokered ceasefire is holding. The withdrawal of Syrian government forces creates a window for de-escalation. The key variable will be whether Israel refrains from further strikes and if the Syrian government accepts the de facto loss of control in the province, preventing a renewed attempt to enter the area which would trigger another crisis.

ANALYST CONFIDENCE LEVELS:

• VERIFIED: 11 reports with multiple source confirmation
• PROBABLE: 28 reports with 2+ credible sources
• UNCONFIRMED: 9 single-source reports requiring monitoring

Intelligence compiled by RAGE X AI systems | Human analyst verification pending

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