Ukraine ‘Months Away’ From Nuclear Capability Amid Waning US Support
In a stark warning, a briefing paper prepared for Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence suggests that Kyiv could rapidly develop a rudimentary nuclear weapon if the United States withdraws military aid. This move would be aimed at deterring Russian advances, especially in the face of diminishing Western support.
Ukraine’s Path to Nuclear Armament
The report highlights that Ukraine could produce a basic nuclear device similar to the “Fat Man” bomb used on Nagasaki in 1945. Unlike traditional nuclear weapons programs, Ukraine would not require extensive uranium enrichment facilities. Instead, it would rely on plutonium extracted from spent fuel rods at its operational nuclear reactors. Ukraine, once the holder of the world’s third-largest nuclear arsenal before disarmament in 1996, still possesses the expertise and raw materials necessary for a rapid nuclear armament.
According to Oleksii Yizhak, head of the department at Ukraine’s National Institute for Strategic Studies, the country holds an estimated seven tons of reactor plutonium—enough material to produce several tactical nuclear warheads. These devices, while less powerful than traditional strategic warheads, would have a destructive capacity sufficient to obliterate military bases or industrial targets. The technology to create an implosive nuclear device, though complex, falls within Ukraine’s capabilities, as per the report.
Zelensky’s Stark Remarks and Strategic Calculations
President Volodymyr Zelensky has previously hinted at the nuclear option, telling former U.S. President Donald Trump that Ukraine might need nuclear weapons to ensure its security if it is unable to join NATO. Although Ukrainian officials later denied any current plans for nuclear rearmament, the leaked report outlines legal arguments for Ukraine’s potential withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). This decision would be grounded on the violation of security assurances given under the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, which promised Ukraine protection in exchange for surrendering its nuclear arsenal.
The document, produced by the Centre for Army, Conversion, and Disarmament Studies, will be presented at a high-level conference in Kyiv. Although not officially endorsed by the government, it provides a compelling case for re-evaluating Ukraine’s non-nuclear stance, especially as Russian forces make gains in the eastern Donbas region.
The Nuclear Debate Amid Escalating Conflict
The prospect of Ukraine pursuing nuclear weapons has raised alarms, especially as Russian troops advance closer to key Ukrainian cities. Valentyn Badrak, the director of the centre that authored the report, emphasized the existential threat faced by Ukraine. With dwindling U.S. military support and increasing pressure from Russia, Badrak argues that nuclear armament may be the only viable deterrent left for Ukraine.
He stated, “If the U.S. abandons us, the U.K. could fulfill its obligations under the Budapest Memorandum by aiding Ukraine in developing a nuclear deterrent.” Badrak also revealed that Ukraine is less than a year away from developing long-range ballistic missiles capable of reaching targets up to 1,000 kilometers away, highlighting a rapidly advancing missile program.
Western analysts have long maintained that it would take Ukraine several years to develop a nuclear weapon and a reliable delivery system. However, Badrak’s assertions point to a much shorter timeline, particularly if Ukraine can leverage its existing stockpiles of reactor plutonium and advanced missile technology.
Strategic Implications and Global Reactions
The potential for Ukraine to develop nuclear weapons has significant geopolitical implications. Yizhak suggested that Kyiv’s threshold for initiating a nuclear rearmament program would be the Russian advance reaching Pavlohrad, a key military-industrial hub. He expressed concern over what he perceives as an excessive fear of nuclear conflict among U.S. policymakers, saying, “The United States treats nuclear weapons as a kind of deity. Perhaps it is time for us to start praying to this god as well.”
The legal basis for Ukraine’s potential withdrawal from the NPT is rooted in the perceived failure of the Budapest Memorandum signatories to provide adequate security assurances. As Russian forces intensify their offensive in the Donbas, and with Trump’s advisors suggesting a possible cessation of U.S. aid, Kyiv may see nuclear capability as a necessary countermeasure.
President Zelensky’s recent remarks to Trump and his administration’s discussions indicate a willingness to reconsider Ukraine’s strategic options, especially if Western support falters. Trump’s campaign rhetoric, including remarks from his son, Donald Trump Jr., has signaled a stark shift in U.S. foreign policy priorities, potentially leaving Ukraine to fend for itself.
The possibility of Ukraine developing a nuclear weapon, while fraught with risks, highlights the desperation and strategic recalibration Kyiv faces amid a shifting geopolitical landscape. Should the West withdraw support, Ukraine may feel compelled to take drastic measures to safeguard its sovereignty against an aggressive Russian advance.
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